I only have so much mental energy, and I only have so much time. It makes sense for me to allocate my time and mental energy to tasks that are likely to succeed and are valuable.
Here is a belief that is core to my worldview–that we can use evidence to build a better world, and we can use that evidence to convince people to change their beliefs, when warranted.
There is a clear tension between those two things, once you factor in how much time and engagement it takes to try to convince someone–just think about the last time you and your dad argued about whether Fannie and Freddie caused the housing crisis. Then factor in the evidence that people become even more convinced of their beliefs when confronted with contrary evidence (see Brenden Nyhan with a great summary here ), and the purpose of all this arguing becomes questionable.
And then I think about my goal. I want to change people’s minds so that they do something–in my case, have my dad believe something about the cause of the financial crisis so that he votes/advocates for different policies than he would have without our conversation. If that’s the outcome I care about, though, couldn’t I just find someone who shares my emotional worldview (without the evidence) and then convince them to be mobilized?
Let me give you an example. When my wife and I were new to Philly, we got minorly involved with an organization that advocated for clean water policies. When I went to canvass, the organizers would tell us our goal, and I would grill them about the evidence base. Why is coal bad? What, specifically, does pollution do to your lungs? My questions made me an ineffective mobilizer, because I took more time and resources from them, and it probably didn’t make me a more effective canvasser. They would have done better with someone who had an emotional, not rational, reaction to the idea of pollution and then got others who also shared that emotional worldview fired up while canvassing.
In thinking about convincing people, I am like the organizers. Why should I try to convince my dad with evidence, when I could find someone who will agree with me based on their emotional worldview and try to get them to take action. It would take less effort and be more effective?
Isn’t it more rational to mobilize those who already agree with you, or whose emotional disposition leads them to agree with you? The conclusion seems inescapable, but it’s also deeply depressing.
The way out is to change your view of the relationship between mobilizing and arguing–that engaging with others, especially those who disagree with you or have different emotional dispositions, is good in itself. That I shouldn’t view that argument with my dad as a chance to change his mind, but rather as a chance to understand him better, and, indeed, to understand myself better. In this view, persuading your intellectual enemies isn’t the opposite of mobilizing your intellectual friends. The two have different goals–one for personal and interpersonal growth, and the other to change the world to be better. Both goals are worthy of pursuit, but confusing engaging your intellectual enemies with trying to change to world will only lead to resentment and confusion.
